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Commodity Morning View For 19 June 2014

Bullions:- Gold held on to modest overnight gains on Thursday after the Federal Reserve cut its outlook for U.S. economic growth, while platinum group metals rose as new hurdles emerged in settling South Africa's mining strike.Spot gold was little changed at $1,278.20 an ounce by 0029 GMT, after rising 0.5 percent on Wednesday on safe-haven bids.The Fed slashed its U.S. growth forecast for 2014 from 2.9 percent to a range of between 2.1 percent and 2.3 percent, and lowered projections for the long-run target interest rate.However, the Fed expressed confidence the U.S. economic recovery was on track and hinted at a slightly more aggressive pace of interest rate increases starting next year. A discussion by gold buyers and sellers across the market on ways to reform or replace London's global price benchmark,known as the "fix", will be held next month by the World Gold Council.Gold jewellery exports from India are likely to grow by a quarter in the year to March 2015, helped by an expected relaxation of its import policy and recovering demand from major consuming countries, the head of a trade body said.Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank plans to keep its interest-rate target low for a considerable time after it ends bond-buying, sending the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index to its biggest drop in almost two weeks. Gold ended a 12-year rally in 2013 on expectations that the central bank would scale back stimulus put in place to fuel growth.The Federal Open Market Committee cut asset purchases at the end of a two-day meeting for the fifth straight time. Fed participants estimated long-term growth for the U.S. economy of 2.1 percent to 2.3 percent, compared with 2.2 percent to 2.3 percent in March and 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in January 2010 in the wake of the most recent recession.

Base Metals:- Base metals generally continued their range-bound trade but prices were mostly firmer as various fundamental news supported individual metals. The lead and zinc price were modestly higher due to demand-supply data published by the International Lead & Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), showing both metals to be in deficit in April.Lead returned to a small supply deficit in April of 8,800 tonnes after revised data for March showed the market in a small surplus, while the zinc market remained in a supply deficit in April to the tune of 52,800 tonnes following deficit in March of some 33,500 tonnes. Recent mixed economic releases have not painted a picture of solid growth in the US and the IMF has cut its growth forecast for the US economy this year to 2.0 percent. It sees full employment only at the end of 2017, suggesting that "rates could afford to stay at zero for longer than the mid-2015 date currently foreseen by markets".

Oil and Energy:- West Texas Intermediate rose for the first time in four days after a government report showed U.S. crude stockpiles shrank and as Iraqi forces battled insurgents north of Baghdad. Brent was steady in London.Futures advanced as much as 0.3 percent in New York. Crude inventories declined by 579,000 barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration reported yesterday. Islamist militants battled Iraq’s military for control of the Baiji oil refinery, the country’s largest, as President Barack Obama weighed America’s options in responding to the crisis.“The crude market is telling us the importance of Iraq,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance Securities in Sydney who predicts investors may sell West Texas contracts if prices climb to $107.50 a barrel. “The concerns are smoldering and that keeps oil up. The EIA numbers are in line with what you’d expect this time of year.”
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Shubhlaxmi Harish

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